It’s hard to find a lacrosse fan who isn’t completely passionate about the sport. Something about the medicine game inspires a fierce loyalty among National Lacrosse League fans, especially in springtime with playoffs on the horizon.
Two gentlemen who have transcended even the status of superfan are Graeme Perrow and Evan Schemenauer. If you’re an avid social media user, you’ve seen their work – they’ve taken their enjoyment for the game and turned it into passion projects that benefit the entire NLL community and turned themselves into legitimate league media sources with their knowledge and resourcefulness.
While always significant and immensely helpful, the information that Perrow and Schemenauer provide are critical at this time of year, as fans and team personnel alike are calculating their playoff odds.
Perrow is the creator of nllstats.com. From Waterdown, ON, Perrow is a software developer in real life so he finds creating the algorithms necessary to run nllstats.com/couldhappen.
“You think because if you start calculating game by game, and it’s like, okay, we’re going to have this team winning half the scenarios or the other team winning, then you kind of just branch it into a tree, you quickly figure out what the 256 are. It’s Saturday night, and then it’s a case of changing all the various functions – what happens, where are the various scenarios, who’s got what tie breaks?” says Schemenauer.
Could Happen on Perrow’s website has helped calculate those scenarios immensely. It allows users to input various scenarios and find out their team’s odds of making the playoffs. Perrow was even able to consult with the League about tiebreakers to ensure accuracy. It’s a tool that people are having fun with.
“It’s a useful tool to get real information, but it’s also just a lot of fun to say, okay, Philadelphia has an almost zero chance, but it’s not zero,” says Perrow. “So, how can they get in, and how can they host a playoff game? All of these really bizarre scenarios that are still possible, and they’re just fun to come up with.”
“It used to be a lot easier before the Unified Standings. It was simple because every time you calculate a game or a team, every game is a multiplier of two as to how many scenarios you have to consider. And this weekend, there isn’t a game that doesn’t matter somehow. But I’ll say this, as much as there’s a lot of work, I think for the fans, the Unified Standings are a huge improvement.”
The Unified Standings certainly have kept things interesting since their implementation in 2022. As Perrow points out, under the old system, the Buffalo Bandits and Toronto Rock would never have been able to meet in the Finals.
“So there are all kinds of possibilities that aren’t possibilities, and now with the Unified Standings, any two teams can end up in the finals. So the number of possibilities just went way, way up. From that point of view, it’s more work, but the benefits greatly outweigh that minor drawback. Last season, at one point Rochester had a 3% chance of making the playoffs, and everything happened the way it [needed to for them], and they made the playoffs.”
Adds Schemenauer, “that Rochester example is a really good one because last year Rochester needed to win and four teams to lose. And this go-round it’s Philadelphia that needs to win and needs five teams to lose.”
Though they have only a 1.6% chance to make the playoffs according to Perrow, the Wings can clinch a playoff berth with a win vs. Vancouver AND two Calgary losses AND an Albany loss vs. San Diego AND a Georgia loss vs. Buffalo AND an Ottawa loss vs. Saskatchewan.
There’s still one game left to go in week 20, but here are the updated playoff percentages:
Clinched:
BUF
SSK
ROC
HFX
VANIn contention:
ALB 20.3%
CAL 76.6%
COL 62.5%
GEO 45.3%
OTT 46.9%
PHI 1.6%
SD 46.9%Out:
TOR
LV— Graeme Perrow (@GraemePerrow) April 13, 2025
“It’s interesting because the last two games of the season happen at the same time,” Schemenauer says. “There are situations where both Calgary and Colorado could be out. There are situations where they both could be in. And the thing about it is that if they’re both in, they won’t know unless Saskatchewan is way ahead of Ottawa because of those two games happening at the same time. And Ottawa’s fate is affecting who gets in at the tail end of it. There are all these intricate little things you have to consider, and it’s kept more teams alive the last two years. Will it always happen that way? It might not. There could be situations where the top eight are just so far ahead of everybody that it’s over with quickly. But I think with more variables and more teams involved, the chances of there being more races for those playoff spots just increase.”
Based on all their stats and odds knowledge, the pair had predictions for this weekend on how we could see things play out with three playoff spots still up for grabs, plus two first-round home games available.
Perrow thinks that Halifax and Vancouver will take those two home games. In order for Halifax to get one, they either have to win vs. Toronto, or hope that Calgary loses one of their two games this weekend, AND Rochester loses vs. Toronto OR Vancouver loses vs. Philadelphia. For Vancouver, it’s a win and they clinch that precious home game – OR they can rely on Rochester losing to Toronto.
“It’s not set in stone yet, but they’re the two front runners at this point. That will be really good for those two markets. We’ve seen electric games in Halifax all season, so I think a playoff game there would be great. A playoff game in Vancouver would be the first one since 2017. And I don’t think any Vancouver team has ever won a playoff game going back to the Ravens. They’re 5-0 since they got Del Bianco. It wasn’t a goaltending problem in Vancouver before that. I thought Aden Walsh was having a great season, but the addition of the former MVP has just made everything else better; the amount of confidence those guys have is through the roof these days. But like we’ve said, look at the upcoming games and any team could win any of ’em.”
“Oh boy, there are some tough ones,” Schemenauer imparts. “For example, Philly may know their fate before they play. There are two games that happen before they even step on the floor that could eliminate them.”
Philadelphia is in the playoffs if ALL of these things happen:
LV beats CAL
SD beats ALB
BUF beats GEO
PHI beats VAN
SSK beats OTT
COL beats CAL https://t.co/174Wv5vg0o— Graeme Perrow (@GraemePerrow) April 14, 2025
“I do like Vancouver’s odds of being at least the four seed, if not the three. And that’s actually an interesting scenario because they don’t re-seed teams. So, you’ve got a situation where you’ve got, at this stage, Buffalo, Vancouver, Rochester, and potentially San Diego as one group of four, which is going to be almost like a group of death, to use a soccer term. Whereas Saskatchewan, Halifax, Calgary, and say, Colorado or Georgia, is a much easier path for a lot of those teams based on where they are today. So as much as, yes, you want to get into the playoffs, it’s also yes, the difference between finishing sixth and finishing eighth is a pretty big one right now.”
